Racing Insights: Can road-course specialists maintain their edge at COTA?
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February 28, 2026
NASCAR Cup Series
By Staff Report
NASCAR.com
Published: 2 Minute Read
Racing Insights’ projection model has sifted through recent track trends, team strengths, and historical data to forecast Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series road-course race at Circuit of The Americas. The 3:30 p.m. ET race will be carried by FOX, HBO Max, PRN Radio, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. The model suggests that a number of prominent road-course specialists are positioned for a strong showing.
Following Saturday’s qualifying session, which saw Daytona 500 and EchoPark Speedway winner Tyler Reddick capture the Busch Light Pole, the data points toward the usual road-course favorites aiming for victory at the 2.4-mile track in Austin, Texas. Here’s how the field stacks up heading into the race.
DRIVERS TO WATCH
SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: Despite starting 13th, the NZ-born driver for Trackhouse Racing is favored by the metrics to reach Victory Lane. Van Gisbergen has claimed the last five road-course races and boasts an average finish of 7.58 on road courses (left and right turns), second only to NASCAR Hall of Famer Fireball Roberts (2.78) among drivers with four or more starts. If he wins, he would become only the second driver to secure six consecutive road-course victories, joining Jeff Gordon, who did it from 1997–2000. Could Van Gisbergen achieve this feat?
CHRISTOPHER BELL: If someone can challenge the Kiwi at COTA, it could be Christopher Bell, who beat Van Gisbergen for the win here last season. Bell’s No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing car starts eighth. While Bell has two non-top-30 finishes at COTA, he has otherwise been strong, with three top-three finishes at the venue and 18 laps led, ranking sixth among active drivers.
RYAN BLANEY: The 2023 Cup Series champion drew attention after Saturday’s on-track action, posting the second-fastest practice time and qualifying in fourth. Whether he can convert that momentum into a Sunday win remains to be seen; Blaney is on a 24-race drought without a top-five on road courses and has yet to crack the top five on a left-right circuit in the Next Gen era.
FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 DURAMAX TEXAS GRAND PRIX POWERED BY RELADYNE (3:30 P.M. ET, FOX)
FINISH CAR NO. DRIVER
1 97 Shane van Gisbergen
2 20 Christopher Bell
3 45 Tyler Reddick
4 1 Ross Chastain
5 24 William Byron
6 9 Chase Elliott
7 12 Ryan Blaney
8 16 AJ Allmendinger
9 5 Kyle Larson
10 17 Chris Buescher
11 19 Chase Briscoe
12 71 Michael McDowell
13 48 Alex Bowman
14 54 Ty Gibbs
15 8 Kyle Busch
16 60 Ryan Preece
17 7 Daniel Suárez
18 22 Joey Logano
19 6 Brad Keselowski
20 77 Carson Hocevar
21 34 Todd Gilliland
22 38 Zane Smith
23 23 Bubba Wallace
24 11 Denny Hamlin
25 2 Austin Cindric
26 41 Cole Custer
27 4 Noah Gragson
28 35 Riley Herbst
29 10 Ty Dillon
30 42 John Hunter Nemechek
31 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
32 3 Austin Dillon
33 21 Josh Berry
34 88 Connor Zilisch
35 43 Erik Jones
36 51 Cody Ware
37 33 Jesse Love
MUST WATCH
Note: This preview highlights the drivers to monitor based on current form, track history, and projected performance. As always, race-day conditions, pit strategies, and on-track incidents can alter outcomes dramatically. Do you think the road-course specialists will extend their streak at COTA, or will a non-traditional favorite shake things up? Share your take in the comments.
